Memphis Residents Staying Alert: The Earthquake Discussion Continues
As folks in Memphis and the surrounding Mid-South brace for the changing fall weather, there’s a buzzing conversation about something a bit more unusual—earthquakes. Yes, you heard that right! Thanks to our location near the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), many locals have often wondered, “When is the next big one going to hit us?”
A Little Background on the NMSZ
Let’s rewind a bit. The New Madrid Seismic Zone is super active, shaking things up with around 150 earthquakes each year, though most are minor tremors that don’t even rattle your windows. Dr. Mitch Withers, an associate research professor at The Center for Earthquake Research Information (CERI) at the University of Memphis, explains that most of these earthquakes have a magnitude of less than 2.5 and go unnoticed by everyone. But he is monitoring them closely.
Understanding Earthquake Magnitudes
But what happens when there’s a big one? Dr. Kent Moran, another expert at CERI, brings us back to the earthquake scale we often hear about: the Richter Scale. He notes that this scale is logarithmic, meaning a magnitude six earthquake is ten times stronger than a five, and a magnitude seven is a whopping 100 times stronger than a five. Yikes!
In fact, looking back at the early 1800s, there were a series of earthquakes in our area that were likely in the range of 7.7 on the Richter Scale. Dr. Moran mentions that accounts from those days describe the earth as “in continual agitation, visibly waving as a gentle sea.” This is staggering to consider, especially when thinking about how densely populated the Mid-South is now compared to back then.
Historically Speaking
Historically, the earthquakes around New Madrid caused significant changes to the landscape, including the formation of the now-famous Reelfoot Lake. After those powerful shakes in 1811 and 1812, accounts still tell the tale of the Mississippi River flowing backwards. How wild is that?
It’s important to note that back in the early 19th century, the area was sparsely populated, unlike today, where Memphis is brimming with residents. With considerations of our modern-day structures and population density, scientists are trying to figure out what a future quake could mean for the fast-growing area.
What Does the Future Hold?
Research has shown that seismic events of similar magnitude to those of 1811 and 1812 have occurred roughly every 500 years. With the last major actions being over 200 years ago, we might think we still have time. But here’s where it gets tricky—earthquakes are notoriously unpredictable!
Dr. Withers shares some eye-opening statistics. The chances of experiencing a magnitude seven earthquake in the NMSZ are estimated to be 7% to 10% over the next 50 years. While it sounds low, it’s still enough to raise some eyebrows. And for those looking for a smaller quake, like a magnitude six, the odds increase significantly to 30% to 50%. Knowing this, it’s wise for the community to be aware, but not alarmed.
Staying Prepared
So, how do we prepare? Just like with the weather, it’s good to be ready for whatever is thrown your way. Dr. Withers reminds us that these percentages should influence our preparation, not our daily lives. “If you told me the odds of it storming this afternoon are 7% to 10%, I wouldn’t grab my umbrella, but I’d want to be aware of where it is just in case.”
Final Thoughts
To make sure families are ready, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security offers helpful advice that everyone can follow. The Mid-South community is resilient and can navigate these discussions and preparations together as we make our home a safer place amidst the unpredictability of nature.
So, keep your ears open, your umbrellas close, and your emergency plans ready! We are all in this together—here’s to staying informed and prepared in the Memphis area!
