West Tennessee Prepares for an Unusually Warm Winter Weather Season

West Tennessee Winter Weather Outlook: What to Expect!

As we move into the chill of winter, Memphis braced itself for another season of cold nights and cozy sweaters. However, this year, it seems that the winter might surprise us all! According to the latest reports from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we’re looking at a winter that’s likely to be a tad warmer than what we’re used to.

A big reason behind this warm-up is the ongoing La Niña climate pattern, which is known for causing cooling in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. But here’s the twist: while the North gets a bit cooler, the South, including Memphis, can expect temperatures that are slightly higher than average!

Temperature Trends: What Do We Know?

So, what can we expect for the winter season of 2024 to 2025? NOAA’s predictions show that Memphis is in for above-average temperatures from December through February. In fact, the graphics suggest that there’s a 33-40% chance that we’ll feel a bit warmer than the usual winter chill.

Now, let’s break this down a little more. During a typical winter, Memphis has average highs and lows that can leave you reaching for some hot cocoa. However, with La Niña in play, we may see milder conditions. Remember those winters in the past ten years with La Niña effects? Yep, there have been seven of them! This includes the winters from 2016 to 2017 and 2020 to 2023, which gives us an idea of what to anticipate.

Precipitation Patterns: A Mixed Bag

When it comes to rain and snowfall, the outlook is a bit like flipping a coin. According to the predictions, Memphis has equal chances of experiencing either above-normal or below-normal precipitation. So, we might enjoy some rain, or we might have dry days! In previous years, like during the winter of 2016 to 2017, we recorded 7.33 inches of rain in December, 4.26 inches in January, and 1.40 inches in February.

Interestingly enough, during those years, the average December temperature hovered around 44.5 degrees, while January and February pushed up to about 48.5 and 54.8 degrees, respectively. And the recent winters from 2020 to 2023 showed even more precipitation than we normally expect, paired with an overall warmer season.

Your Holiday Weather: Sun and Mildness

Looking ahead to the holidays, the Old Farmer’s Almanac suggests that you’d better dust off those sunglasses because Memphis may enjoy a mild and sunny winter this year! Specifically, expect some delightful weather around Christmas. Just imagine sipping eggnog on your porch in warmer temperatures—it could very well happen!

Understanding La Niña

If you’re curious about La Niña and what it means for our weather, here’s the lowdown: it represents a period of cooler ocean surface temperatures in specific areas of the Pacific. This phenomenon usually occurs every three to five years, contrary to El Niño, which signifies warmer ocean surface temperatures. The last El Niño event was experienced in 2023, adding to the fascinating weather dynamics we’re witnessing this winter.

Winter Solstice is Coming!

As the countdown to winter continues, remember that winter officially begins with the winter solstice on Saturday, Dec. 21. This will be the shortest day and night of the entire year, so grab your favorite blanket and prepare to cozy up as we enter this curious winter period!

In conclusion, while winter might start with those trademark cold temperatures, don’t put away your shorts just yet! This year, Memphis could surprise us all with a warm and wet 2024-2025 winter season!